Growing tensions in Thailand’s political opposition became an outright schism on Wednesday when the Pheu Thai party announced its intention to interrupt with the favored Forward Movement party to form a brand new ruling coalition.
Analysts had speculated before the choice that Pheu Thai, the runner-up in May’s election, might abandon his progressive counterpart in favor of forming a brand new government and ending the political stalemate with the conservative establishment.
But Wednesday’s declaration still sparked anger and protests from supporters of Move Forward, the most important party in Thailand’s parliament. After the announcement, demonstrators burnt effigies soaked in fake blood in front of Pheu Thai headquarters in Bangkok.
“I think it’s very much anticipated,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow on the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, speaking in regards to the breakup. “The only surprise is that it came earlier than expected. Many observers believed it would take one more round of voting before Pheu Thai would have a strong enough case to kick the Forward Movement Party out of the coalition.”
Pheu Thai also announced on Wednesday that it might nominate outstanding businessman Sretta Thavisin as its candidate for prime minister. On August 4, MPs will vote on Sretta’s candidacy in a joint session, which appears to further close the door on the probabilities of 42-year-old Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, who was already rejected as a candidate in the sooner parliamentary session.
The move is the most recent in an ongoing political drama that has gripped Thailand for months for the reason that surprising electoral success of Move Forward, which marked a decisive public rejection of the previous military-backed government, a legacy of a 2014 coup.
Move Forward and Pheu Thai together formed the premise of an eight-party coalition that also included a gaggle of six much smaller political parties. Now, despite being the most important party in parliament, Move Forward will likely be pushed into the opposition by Pheu Thai’s decision. The coalition’s collapse is more likely to deepen resentment against the conservative bloc – particularly the military-appointed Senate – amongst opposition supporters and will spark a backlash against Pheu Thai amongst its own supporters.
In an effort to melt the blow of cutting out a more popular partner, Pheu Thai leaders said in an announcement that they intend to adopt many elements of the excluded party’s progressive platform, including points corresponding to ending military conscription and supporting LGBTQ+ rights. However, they made clear they’d no intention of reforming Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté law, which prohibits speech deemed critical of the monarchy.
Move Forward made the amendment to the law, also generally known as Art. 112 of the Penal Code, the pillar of his campaign. This won indignant and determined opposition from the Conservatives and regularly drove a wedge between the party and a number of the smaller parties in its coalition.
On July 22 and 23, Pheu Thai leaders met with representatives of all major parties outside the coalition – except the Democratic Party as a result of its current lack of leadership – to debate what it might require of them to support Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate.
During these meetings and subsequent press conferences, each of those parties made it clear that they were willing to support the Pheu Thai candidate, but only on the condition that the Forward Movement was not included within the coalition.
Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew publicly denied that the meetings and subsequent press conferences were an indirect approach to encouraging Move Forward to voluntarily leave the coalition in order that Pheu Thai could form a government. But now it seems that was the case.
“[Pheu Thai] he is essentially borrowing other parties as a spokesman to attempt to exclude the Forward Movement Party,” Napon said in a speech before Wednesday’s announcement became official.
Whether the meetings were intended as political theater or a real try to gauge support, the determined opposition to Move Forward left little likelihood of coalition of eight parties ensuring the 375 votes needed to form a government, even when the party changes its divisive position on the lèse-majesté law.
“If only [Move Forward] would back out of their commitment to amend Article 112, I do not think the coalition can expect to win any more seats so long as the Forward Movement party continues to be within the coalition,” Napon said last week.
With the trail to government difficult, tensions rose between the eight parties. Before Wednesday’s announcement, the leader of each A series of Thai party rashes and Immerse yourself within the Sungkom Mai party called for the annulment of the agreement institutionalizing the coalition.
However, the Thai Sang Thai and Fair parties sided with Move Forward and took the other positionproposing that the coalition simply wait until May next 12 months, when the Senate’s right to take part in the means of choosing the prime minister expires. Theoretically, they might then elect Pita to office with the present support within the lower house.
They will make a cope with the devil, so to talk, by working with parties from the opposite side of Thailand’s bitter political divide.”
James Buchanan, Thai political analyst
Regardless of the consequence of internal coalition debates, Pheu Thai’s unfolding try to form a Move Forward exclusionary government could face significant backlash from pro-democracy supporters of each parties.
“Many Move Forward voters also have a fondness for Pheu Thai and are likely former Pheu Thai voters,” James Buchanan, an independent Thai politics analyst, wrote in a message Globe ahead of Wednesday’s announcement.
“Likewise, many voters in Pheu Thai can admire the Move Forward initiative. So it will be controversial whether or when (I think “when” is much more likely) Pheu Thai decides to abandon Move Forward and try to form its own coalition. What is even more controversial is that they will make a deal with the devil, so to speak, by working with parties from the other side of Thailand’s bitter political divide.”
Public hostility towards any alliances made across these divides had already begun to emerge before Wednesday’s announcement.
July 23 protesters stormed to arrange a joint press conference led by Pheu Thai and Palang Pacharat, demanding that the party honor its previous commitments to not form a government that might include Palang Pacharat and the United Thai Nation. Protesters also threw talcum powder at Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew and Palang Pacharat MP Thamanat Prompowand, and questioned whether Pheu Thai had forgotten bloody repression against its supporters in 2010.
Pheu Thai supporters also began to specific their dissatisfaction with this alliance. Thida Thavornseth, former president of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) – an activist organization whose Red Shirts are amongst Pheu Thai’s most lively supporters – warned Pheu Thai of the results of breaking with Move Forward.
IN Post on Facebook On July 27, she stated that the Red Shirts support all parties in pro-democracy politics, not only Pheu Thai, and that if the party were to affix forces with military-aligned parties, the UDD would get its support elsewhere.
Even if Pheu Thai is in a position to successfully cope with any backlash resulting from its decision to interrupt with the Forward Movement, there continues to be no guarantee that Thailand’s conservative establishment will allow them to form a government, Buchanan said.
“Of course, there is always a risk that Pheu Thai will be co-opted by the elites whose long game is to form a government that has neither the Forward Movement nor Pheu Thai,” he said.
