I do know a few of you could not need to hear this. To be honest…I could possibly be flawed.
The petro-dollar may be strengthened or not less than maintained by continuing the war with Iran.
Let me explain:
Yes…Iran now has the Strait of Hormuz. 20-25% of the world’s oil flows here. However, America remains to be the most important energy producer, each when it comes to oil and natural gas.
If the oil infrastructure of Iran and the Gulf states is severely damaged or destroyed in the subsequent two to 3 years, where will the remaining of the world be left when it comes to oil supplies? It will take not less than a decade to convert everyone to electric vehicles and solar energy.
Unfortunately (and I actually hope I’m flawed), this war could drag on for years and even many years. A ship here… an oil well there… this desalter after which one other. It doesn’t should collapse immediately to scale back global supply in a way that advantages America.
Even though US bases are being destroyed, many employees have been evacuated and are working in additional distant locations. The US cannot touch Iran so easily, but that doesn’t mean the war is over. The entire Middle East could go offline and the whole lot would still be fantastic in America.
Sure… we’ll have $5 a gallon of gas, but so what? Remote work could easily make a comeback, because it has in Southeast Asia. Tesla is beginning to deploy its electric robotics in my home state of Texas. We feel pain, but we do not die.
The United States and Russia could be the one major oil producers under these latest conditions. (Venezuela is largely in a hostage situation).
Do you actually think America will sell its precious dinosaur juice in Petro Yuan? Of course not. The dollar will still have great strength on this latest environment, even when it weakens somewhat initially.
America could lose this war with Iran and still come out on top or not less than even. We lost in Vietnam, but in Hanoi and Saigon there are McDonald’s and Starbucks all over the place.
Perhaps that is why Trump said he was considering moving on from Hormuz and calling it a victory.
What does this mean for Southeast Asia? This signifies that electrification isn’t any longer nearly improving air quality. The transition to electric vehicles is now a matter of national security. Most Southeast Asian governments already know this.
The query is: How quickly can they make the transition?
