Several of the world’s leading climate institutions have warned that the developing El Niño within the tropical Pacific could change into the strongest ever recorded in modern history.
If these forecasts prove accurate, 2027 could change into the most popular 12 months on record, because the Asia-Pacific region braces for prolonged droughts, crop failures and hydro-meteorological disasters on a scale not seen in many years.
What is Super El Niño and why is it different?
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that happens every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures within the tropical Pacific rise significantly enough to disrupt wind patterns and weather systems around the globe.
Its intensity is measured by the Niño3.4 index, which compares sea surface temperatures within the central Pacific to their historical average.
El Niño is assessed as a “very severe” or super El Niño when the speed is greater than 2°C above average. The strongest event ever recorded reached 2.7°C in 1877.
The last super El Niño occurred in 2015–2016, when the Niño3.4 index peaked at 2.4°C. Even the 2023–2024 El Niño, which didn’t reach Super El Niño status, was enough to make 2024 the most popular 12 months in recorded history.
However, what is going on now goes far beyond the everyday cycle. In its May 1 report, ECMWF predicted that sea surface temperatures within the tropical Pacific could rise 3°C above average by November, exceeding the previous record set in 1877.
How likely is that this to occur?
In a report released on May 14, NOAA stated that the probability of El Niño occurring between May and July is 82%, and the probability that El Niño will persist through the top of the 12 months is 96%. Moreover, there’s a 65% probability that El Niño will strengthen and change into a robust or very strong category from October.
Scientists are still unsure about how intense the height of the event will ultimately be. However, what has made the worldwide climate community rather more concerned than usual is how quickly it’s developing.
The transition from the colder phase of La Niña to El Niño occurred much faster than the historical average as a consequence of the big reserves of warmth which have collected within the deeper layers of the central and eastern Pacific and at the moment are starting to flow to the surface.
The Asia-Pacific region has the best impact
Whenever a robust El Niño occurs, the Asia-Pacific region is at all times considered one of the toughest hit. NOAA has consistently seen the identical pattern: reduced monsoon rainfall in India and Southeast Asia, extreme drought in Australia and Indonesia, and a pointy increase in cross-border forest fires.
All this ultimately results in the issue most directly felt by society: the food crisis. Agricultural production is falling in regions heavily depending on seasonal rainfall, food prices are rising sharply, and low-income countries bear the brunt.
Historical data paints an image of the worst-case scenario. The 1877 El Niño, which lasted about 18 months, caused severe droughts and mass famine in Asia, Brazil and Africa, while also causing extreme flooding in other regions corresponding to Peru.
Scientists warn that if the present El Niño actually exceeds the record set in 1877, the same scenario could repeat itself on an excellent larger scale.
2027 could change into the most popular 12 months on record
In addition to its regional effects, El Niño also acts as an amplifier of world temperatures. Overall, a robust El Niño could raise Earth’s average temperature by about 0.2°C above the prevailing long-term warming trend.
In his own Climate assessment status The Climate Brief report released on April 21 predicts that 2027 could potentially break the record as the most popular 12 months on record if El Niño reaches a really strong peak.
NOAA even said that 2026 will “very likely” already be among the many five hottest years ever recorded, even before taking into consideration the complete effects of El Niño.
Major forecast models from NOAA, ECMWF and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology now point in the identical direction: the world must prepare for considered one of the strongest El Niño events in modern climate history.
