The Move Forward Party, the surprise winner of Thailand’s May elections, faces a dilemma over whether to support or oppose its former ally’s candidate for prime minister after its own leader was rejected in his bid for the position.
The latest coalition formed by Pheu Thai Party plans to nominate real estate tycoon Sretta Thavisin as prime minister. The vote against Srettha risks pushing Pheu Thai towards conservative opponents and pro-royalist senators who’ve thwarted Move Forward’s efforts to form a government under Pita Limjaroenrat.
Move Forward lawmakers are gauging the mood among the many initiative’s supporters – mostly urban and young voters – to make a decision on strategy. While Pita said the party was in no rush to make a choice, Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, co-founder of its disbanded predecessor Future Forward Party, said Move Forward should clarify its decision to take a seat within the opposition and rule out support for the Pheu Thai coalition.
“Move Forward is likely to upset many of its supporters if they vote for a Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidate who leads a reconciliation pact with the Conservatives,” said Peter Mumford, head of the Southeast Asia practice at consultancy Eurasia Group.
‘I won’t drink it’: How a Thai drink became so politically polarizing
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Political paralysis has undermined investor confidence in Thailand, which has been under an interim government with none major powers since March. Political parties are actually under pressure to finish the post-election stalemate and address economic issues akin to the delicate economic recovery, high household debt and declining disposable incomes.
Move Forward was a number one candidate to guide the federal government within the weeks after the May 14 elections, and is now liable to being relegated to opposition, largely resulting from the organization’s reluctance to back down on a promise to vary royal insult laws and other platforms that might harm professionals – military business elites.
Pheu Thai has asked for support and is asking for reconciliation between political parties, citing the most effective interests of the nation. The Move Forward decision may potentially determine the form of the Pheu Thai coalition, as pro-military parties and senators haven’t yet supported the alliance.
The latest Pheu Thai alliance falls well in need of a majority in each houses of parliament, which have a combined 750 members and can determine who becomes prime minister. As of Thursday, the coalition had the support of 238 lawmakers, 13 fewer than a majority within the elected House of Representatives. Move Forward’s 151 lawmakers could effectively seal Sretta’s victory even without the support of senators or militaristic groups.
Pheu Thai, backed by the family of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is pushing to form what he calls a reconciliation government with the support of parties across ideological lines. The party said it was time to desert many years of color-coded policies – red for Shinawatra supporters and yellow for his or her royalist opponents – and concentrate on measures to revive the economy.
Thaksin’s plan to return to Thailand after 15 years of self-imposed exile also has implications for the formation of the Pheu Thai government. This potentially raises the necessity to broker deals with military-backed parties that represent the establishment to make sure his secure return home and the likelihood of receiving a royal pardon, said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow on the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
This also presents Pheu Thai with a dilemma, because it must determine whether it should ally with military-linked parties though it has other options, Napon said.
“Pheu Thai is just not counting on Move Forward’s support and seems to have gone quite far to the ‘dark side’,” Napon said. “The actual challenge for Pheu Thai is that some options could significantly damage its reputation as a pro-democracy party, even if they bring it to power or ensure Thaksin’s safe return home.”
Although Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy is anticipated to grow greater than 3% this 12 months resulting from a rebound in tourism and personal consumption, it’s struggling resulting from weak global demand for its goods and rising borrowing costs. Investors also fear that a delay in forming a government may delay the approval of the state budget and public spending.
Srettha sees forming a government because the earliest solution to Thailand’s urgent economic problems and doesn’t rule out an alliance with military-backed parties.
“We have to be realistic,” he told reporters late Friday evening. “We need a new government. To solve Thailand’s problems, it is necessary for Pheu Thai to lead the government.”
