Indonesia is preparing for the 2024 presidential elections, where the country’s best sons will fight for the coveted position. In this electoral competition, three pairs of candidates emerged for the president and vp of Indonesia.
The first pair, called candidate pair 01, is made up of Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar. Anies Baswedan, a trained academic who was the Chancellor of Paramadina University (2007-2015), Minister of Education and Culture of Indonesia (2014-2016) and Governor of Jakarta (2017-2022), joins forces with Muhaimin Iskandar, a distinguished figure born in the most important Islamic mass organization in Indonesia, Nahdlatul Ulama. Iskandar has led the National Awakening Party since 2005 and has long held parliamentary positions. Candidate pair 01 is backed by the National Awakening Party, the NasDem Party, the Prosperative Justice Party and the Ummat Party, forming the Coalition for Change.
The Candidate Pair 02 consists of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Prabowo Subianto, a politician, entrepreneur and senior Indonesian military officer, founded the Indonesia Grand Movement Party in 2008 and has led the party since 2014. He is joined by Gibran Rakabuming Raka, son of current Indonesian president Joko Widodo. Gibran, a politician and entrepreneur, currently serves because the mayor of Surakarta. Candidate Pair 02 is supported by the Indonesian Forward Coalition, which incorporates the Grand Indonesian Movement Party, the Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party, the Democratic Party, 4 extra-parliamentary parties (the Crescent Star Party, the Gelora Indonesia Party, the Indonesian Solidarity Party, the Garuda Party), one local party (Aceh Party) and one party not participating within the 2024 general elections (People’s Party of the Just and Prosperous).
Finally, candidate pair 03 consists of Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD. Ganjar Pranowo, a politician who was a member of parliament and governor of Central Java for nine years (2013–2023), works with Mahfud MD, a politician and senior academic who held, amongst others, positions of Minister of National Defense (2001-2002), Minister of Law and Human Rights (2001), President of the Constitutional Tribunal (2008-2013) and Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs (2019-2024). The 03 candidates are supported by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and the United Development Party (PPP), in addition to two extra-parliamentary parties (the People’s Conscience Party and the United Indonesian Party).
According to the Seasia Stats Poll conducted on January 8, 2024 using the comment method indicating support, candidate pair 01 obtained 47.15%, candidate pair 02 obtained 41.43% and candidate pair 03 obtained 11.42% of the full 3729 gathered likes from February 9 at 6:24 (UTC+7).
The survey results suggest that the Candidate 01 pair has a slight advantage over the Candidate 02 pair, and the Candidate 03 pair has a big advantage. This marks a change from previous expectations during which the 02 Candidate pair was seen because the leader and even significantly outperformed the 01 Candidate pair. However, recent events have modified the political landscape, prompting supporters to re-evaluate their allegiance or switch from the 02 to the Candidate pair. pair of candidates 01 or 03.
Previously, Candidate Couple 02 could have had a high probability of winning, well ahead of Couple 01, let alone Couple 03. It is price noting that each Candidate Couple 01 and Candidate Couple 02 are popular on Instagram, which indicates their closeness with young voters ( millennials and Generation Z), in addition to city dwellers.
Several aspects contributed to this alteration, including the incumbent President’s clear support for the Candidate Couple 02 campaign, criticism from various universities concerning the current administration’s approach, and distinguished politicians, including former allies of the incumbent President, withdrawing or switching sides. Additionally, ministers loyal to the incumbent President openly support Candidate Pair 02, despite holding key positions in the present government.
Therefore, it is anticipated that there will probably be a second round of elections as neither pair of candidates can secure a direct victory in the primary round. Candidate pairs 01 and 02 are expected to advance to the second round, while candidate pair 03 stays behind.
The end result of the second round stays uncertain. Candidate Pair 02 can proceed to win due to the continued support of satisfied residents and entrepreneurs who appreciate the term of office of the incumbent President and wish to finish ongoing projects. However, if Candidate Pair 03 forms a coalition with Candidate Pair 01, it might significantly increase the latter’s probabilities of winning. Many alumni and supporters dissatisfied with the incumbent President’s performance may support the 01 Candidate Couple, together with former supporters of the 02 Candidate Couple who defected to the 01 Candidate Couple in pursuit of change.
Ultimately, the winner of the election will probably be entrusted with leading the nation forward. Regardless of the end result, one can hope that elected leaders will prioritize the interests and well-being of the Indonesian people.
