Despite the beginning of the 12 months, the United Nations issued a serious warning, stating that this 12 months may very well be warmer than last attributable to the influence of El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN’s weather and climate body, estimates that El Niño will persist until no less than April 2024.
El Niño, characterised by elevated sea surface temperatures within the eastern and central Pacific, can trigger extreme weather events akin to wildfires, tropical cyclones and long-term droughts. This natural phenomenon has caused disasters all over the world, posing greater risks, especially for markets in developing countries, that are exposed to fluctuations in food and energy prices.
After the cooling phase of La Niña led to early 2023, the WMO announced the onset of El Niño in July of the identical 12 months, highlighting that July and August of that 12 months were recorded because the two hottest months on record. The impact of this phenomenon may be seen in record high land and sea surface temperatures since June 2023, making it the most popular 12 months on record. As a result, WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas sternly warns that this 12 months may very well be even hotter.
According to Euronews, the rare occurrence of a robust El Niño within the Pacific Ocean and significant temperature changes within the Indian Ocean could worsen high temperatures and drought in Australia and Southeast Asia. Moreover, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sometimes called El Niño’s “little brother”, is currently in a positive phase of its cycle, with changes in temperatures within the east and high temperatures within the west. While each climate events will not be unusual, the mixture of a robust positive IOD and an intense El Niño is rare.
These two phenomena are closely linked to warmer and drier conditions in Southeast Asia and far of Australia. When they occur concurrently, they may cause extremely dry weather and heatwaves, potentially sparking wildfires across the region.
Hope for tomorrow?
According to the WMO, for the reason that Eighties, each decade has been warmer than the previous one, with nine of the most popular years on record occurring since 2015. This trend indicates the growing impact of world climate change, which has necessary consequences, especially for developing countries.
Meanwhile, Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, said that human behavior may very well be in comparison with “burning the Earth.” According to him, 2023 was only a preview of the long run disasters that await us if immediate motion just isn’t taken.
In fact, the world already has the 2015 Paris Agreement, which goals to limit global temperature increases to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and aim to remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius where possible. Although the Earth’s average surface temperature exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold in 2024, this doesn’t mean that the world is not going to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming under control. The agreement still allows for efforts to lower the Earth’s temperature after the “overshoot” period, which creates positive prospects for shielding our planet.
