Dato Lim Jock Hoi, Secretary-General of ASEAN
ASEAN is step by step emerging from what appears to be essentially the most serious phase of the Covid-19 crisis, however the region stays at a critical juncture. New shocks have emerged that pose a challenge to the region – the worldwide economic slowdown, higher food and energy prices, climate disasters and chronic global trade tensions. However, as with pandemic management, this same resilience will help counter the possible far-reaching damage from such global shocks.
The region’s policy space, built over years of successfully coping with previous economic crises, will be sure that each monetary and monetary policies remain responsive and versatile to handle spillover effects, including implementing stronger policies to guard the poor and mitigate effects on sectors affected by shocks.
Certainly, ASEAN’s strong commitment to regional cooperation and integration will help the region address these headwinds and uncertainties. This makes the ASEAN Community resilient and powerful despite adversity and challenges.
This is evidenced by the region’s solid achievements over the past five years.
Progress has been made in implementing the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework as a pandemic recovery strategy. ASEAN’s projected growth of 5.3% in 2022 is well above the worldwide average growth of three.2%. It is now critical to construct on this momentum towards an inclusive and sustainable recovery from the pandemic. The entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement, in addition to efforts to substantially conclude negotiations on updating the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA), modernizing existing ASEAN free trade agreements akin to the China Agreement and India, and negotiations on recent ones, for instance with Canada, are a transparent reminder that ASEAN must adhere to the rules-based multilateral trading system if the region’s economic dynamism is to be maintained.
Efforts to construct back higher and safeguard the contribution of regional integration to ASEAN nations proceed to achieve traction. ASEAN member states have managed to reopen schools and recent guidelines at the moment are in place to maintain them open in the long run, enabling secure in-person education during health crises and emergencies.
Various programs and initiatives have been and are being implemented to empower youth, women and other vulnerable groups, including: ASEAN Regional Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) adopted on the last ASEAN summit in November. An example is ASEAN Junior Fellowship Program with the ASEAN Secretariat (AJFP), initiated by Brunei Darussalam to leverage the potential contributions of ASEAN young diplomats to community-building efforts. There are also mechanisms in place to take care of future health crises, akin to the ASEAN Center for Public Health Emergencies and Emerging Diseases and the ASEAN Regional Reserve for Public Health Medical Emergencies.
Meanwhile, amid rising geopolitical tensions all over the world, ASEAN’s commitment to peace and stability within the region has not wavered. This is underlined by the expansion of ASEAN’s external relations, where during the last five years ASEAN has increased its list of partners by one dialogue partner (UK), two sectoral dialogue partners (Brazil and the United Arab Emirates) and three development dialogue partners (Chile, France and Italy). Additionally, since 2018, 15 recent High Contracting Parties, including most recently Denmark, Greece, the Netherlands, Oman, Qatar, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates, have joined the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC).
Therefore, openness and engagement remain crucial as issues that threaten the region’s security are addressed, whether within the face of radicalization and violent extremism, combating transnational crime, or giving ASEAN the best possible political weight. In these uncertain times, the necessity for political conversations is crucial. Therefore, the choice to confess East Timor as a member is just not only a test of ASEAN’s maturity as a security community, but additionally an indication that Central ASEAN and the ASEAN Community are literally working.
However, despite the achievements of the last five years, the ASEAN Community stays at a crossroads. This is because of world and regional issues that affect the longer term of the ASEAN Community, including issues akin to global trade tensions, climate change, the digital divide and even the pandemic. Taken together, these challenges have exposed gaps or weaknesses in ASEAN’s ability to realize a few of its goals, akin to participation in global value chains, strengthening macro-financial coordination, and reducing development gaps.
Given the multitude of changes which have impacted the foundations of the ASEAN Community, the post-2025 ASEAN agenda should adopt a special approach to regional integration, namely one which is more dynamic and able to initiating recent initiatives and implementing measures in response to changing market conditions and economic. Simply put, the post-2025 agenda for ASEAN is to rethink the ASEAN community by identifying and implementing the fitting levers of regional cooperation and integration that might position ASEAN economies well within the years ahead.
For example, continuing digital transformation is clearly a must for a resilient future. Current efforts to speed up the region’s transition to a digital and knowledge-based economy, akin to the Bandar Seri Begawan Action Plan for the ASEAN Digital Transformation Program and the event of an ASEAN Digital Economy Framework that may increase productivity and prosperity in ASEAN in the approaching years, are necessary. But more is required. We need to speculate in infrastructure, education, cybersecurity and safety networks, in addition to reforms to extend access to technology. More importantly, a brand new way of pondering is required to be sure that everyone in ASEAN – from governments to individuals and businesses – is fully and as a complete embraces digital transformation and is prepared for the digital era.
Sustainable development is one other huge challenge for ASEAN, exacerbating the region’s problems, from climate change to food insecurity, natural disasters and disruptions to produce chains and key infrastructure. It is time for ASEAN to develop a comprehensive sustainability framework, an integrated and multi-sectoral approach that addresses sustainability and circularity in ASEAN across all dimensions and pillars of the community. While the ecological transition and achieving carbon neutrality could also be costly, further delays could end in greater costs and massive harm to ASEAN and the well-being of its nations. The lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic remain clear – growth without sustainability could be significantly dangerous and destructive.
While the road ahead for ASEAN is more likely to be just as difficult, if not harder, provided the fitting decisions are made, the region can overcome the worst impacts. So what should ASEAN do?
First, ASEAN must remain relevant, dynamic and versatile. This means having strong institutions, processes and mechanisms to make sure ASEAN stays relevant as a significant regional player. The pursuit of a strengthened and well-resourced ASEAN Secretariat is the fitting step forward and the time has come.
Second, the ASEAN Community should and must act if ASEAN is to turn into the world’s fifth-largest economy by 2030. The possibilities are enormous. Unfortunately, ASEAN has a narrow path to an integrated community and there isn’t any room for error. Therefore, it’s crucial to develop a comprehensive post-2025 agenda for the ASEAN Community, in addition to coordinated strategies between the three pillars of the Community. The post-2025 agenda mustn’t be seen merely as a continuation of previous integration efforts, but moderately as a possibility to reimagine ASEAN as a really integrated community.
Finally, since its founding, ASEAN must be sure that the well-being of countries is at the middle of every part. ASEAN has at all times adapted to a changing world. Therefore, reducing development gaps mustn’t be just an initiative, but ought to be an integral a part of ASEAN pondering and strategy, rooted in each country’s political, economic and social systems.
Given the achievements of the ASEAN Community over the past five years, a more resilient ASEAN Community will emerge in the approaching years, rather more integrated and higher prepared to address shocks and uncertainties. But to realize this, ASEAN must proceed to remodel and reimagine itself.
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