According to the World Tourism Organization’s (UNWTO) first edition for 2022, improved vaccination rates combined with fewer travel restrictions resulting from higher coordination and cross-border regulations have helped to release pent-up demand.
International arrivals were down 62% in each the third and fourth quarters of 2021 in comparison with pre-pandemic levels. International arrivals in December were 65% lower than in 2019, in line with limited data.
The total impact of the Omicron change and the rise in COVID-19 cases has not been determined.
Compared to 2020, global tourism increased by 4% in 2021 (415 million in comparison with 400 million).
According to preliminary UNWTO data, the variety of foreign (overnight) tourist arrivals was still 72% lower than in 2019 before the pandemic. This is in contrast to 2020, which was the worst 12 months on record for tourism, when international arrivals fell by 73%.
Due to various degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveler confidence, the pace of recovery around the globe stays slow and uneven. Europe and the Americas were the perfect performers in 2021 in comparison with 2020 (+19% and +17%), but each were still 63% below pre-pandemic levels.
The Caribbean outperformed all other sub-regions (+63% in comparison with 2020, although 37% below 2019), with some destinations meeting or exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
Southern Europe Mediterranean (+57%) and Central America (+54%) also recorded significant growth, but are still 54% and 56% below 2019 levels. North America (+17%) and Central Europe Eastern (+18%) also exceeded their 2020 forecasts.
Meanwhile, arrivals to Africa in 2021 are up 12% in comparison with 2020, although still 74% lower than in 2019. Arrivals to the Middle East are down 24% in 2020 and 79% in 2019 .With many destinations remaining closed to traffic for non-essential travel, arrivals to Asia-Pacific were still 65% below 2020 levels and 94% below pre-pandemic levels.
According to the present UNWTO expert panel, the vast majority of tourism industry professionals (61%) expect higher prospects for 2022. While 58% predict a rebound in 2022, mainly within the third quarter, only 42% predict a rebound in 2023.
Most experts (64%) say international arrivals is not going to return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later, up from 45% in a September survey.
In January–April 2022, the UNWTO Trust Index showed a moderate decline. The essential conditions that experts suggest for a successful return of international tourism are a rapid and broader rollout of vaccinations, followed by a big lifting of travel restrictions, and higher coordination and clearer communication on travel regulations.
According to UNWTO forecasts, the variety of visits by foreign guests may increase by 30% to 78% in 2022 in comparison with 2021. However, it’s going to be 50 to 63% lower than before the pandemic.
As some countries impose travel bans and restrictions on chosen markets, the present surge in COVID-19 cases and the Omicron variant is anticipated to undermine the economic recovery and damage confidence in early 2022. At the identical time, vaccination coverage is inconsistent, with few directions, especially in Asia and the Pacific still have their borders blocked.
While international tourism is recovering, domestic tourism continues to drive the sector’s recovery in an increasing variety of destinations, especially those with strong domestic markets.
According to experts, domestic tourism and travel near home, in addition to outdoor activities, nature-based products and rural tourism are among the many foremost travel trends that can proceed to shape tourism in 2022.
Source: UNWTO.org
