Politics

South China Sea: Why are tensions rising between the Philippines and Beijing and can the US become involved?

China is using the so-called nine-dash line, which covers about 90 percent of the South China Sea, to say its claims of sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal, a submerged reef coveted for its abundant fish stocks, and Second Thomas Shoal, home to a small contingent of resident Filipino seafarers on board a rusty warship which Manila deliberately entrenched in 1999 to support its territorial claims.

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Why are things heating up?

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in 2016 that Beijing’s expansive claims through the nine-dash line had no basis in international law, handing the Philippines a landmark victory but that didn’t stop China, which rejects the ruling, from being more forceful.

Beijing has deployed tons of of coast guard ships to patrol the areas, alarming the Philippines, rival claimant parties and other nations operating within the South China Sea, including the United States, that are wary of China’s growing military power and territorial ambitions.

What were the causes of those downtimes?

Meetings between the Philippines and China in Asia’s most disputed waters have change into increasingly tense and more frequent over the past 12 months as Beijing presses forward with its claims and Manila refuses to stop fishing and resupplying Filipinos in each shoals. China considers it an illegal incursion and has tried to repel the ships.

The Chinese Coast Guard has intensified operations within the so-called “gray zone”, akin to use of a water cannon, collision and ramming tactics and, based on Manila, the usage of a military-grade laser to disrupt Philippine resupply and patrol missions. It also sent an armada of fishing boats, which the Philippines and allies consider militias.

During the last two resupply missions in Second Thomas Shoal, Filipino boats suffered damage and a few crew were injured by water cannon fire. China has insisted that the Philippines tow the warship, promising it’s going to just do that, but Manila maintains no such agreement has been reached.

What was the worldwide response?

China’s actions have drawn international condemnation and concern from major powers including the United States, Japan, Australia, France and the United Kingdom.

Foreign journalists joined some Philippine resupply missions and documented events on the Philippines’ invitation, which, based on one security official, were intended to “make clear China’s ‘gray zone’ tactics.” China accused the Philippines of causing trouble and spreading disinformation.

China’s actions are “dangerous, illegal and destabilizing the region,” a senior U.S. admiral said on April 9.

How is the Philippines reacting?

President Marcos has taken a troublesome stance against what he sees as Chinese hostility and rejected its pressure, recently promising to implement countermeasures against “illegal, coercive, aggressive and dangerous attacks” by the Chinese coast guard, raising the stakes within the growing dispute.

The Philippines said countermeasures can be “multi-dimensional” and would require exhausting diplomatic options. Marcos also called for stronger maritime security coordination to handle “various serious challenges” to territorial integrity and peace.

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Could the United States become involved?

The Philippines’ dispute with China coincides with the increased involvement of the United States in the sector of security under the Marcos government, including expanding access to the USA to the Philippine bases. Manila also wants close security ties with other allies akin to Japan and Australia. The engagements include joint patrols, which has frustrated China.

The United States signed a Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines and has repeatedly said it could protect its ally if its coast guard or armed forces were attacked anywhere within the South China Sea, calling the agreement “armored.”

The treaty significantly raises the stakes of the Philippines-China dispute over maritime miscalculations. But it could also limit the extent to which China is willing to go to maintain the Philippines at bay, guarding against the danger of conflict and pressure to reply decisively within the event of direct U.S. military involvement.

Philippine officials, including Marcos, have rejected any suggestion of invoking the treaty in the present situation, stressing that it could be a final resort.

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