The ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute report “The State Of South-east Asia 2024” published on April 2, 2024, shows a transparent change in sentiment amongst respondents from the region. If China is forced to make a choice from the 2 major powers, it’s going to overtake the United States by a slim margin as the popular superpower in Southeast Asia. Of 1,994 respondents surveyed in 10 Asian countries, 50.5 percent selected China as their preferred alternative, while 49.5 percent selected the United States. This is a noticeable change in comparison with the study conducted in 2023, by which only 38.9 percent respondents selected China, and 61.1 percent – United States.
The 2024 survey was conducted online from January 3 to February 23 and included respondents from academia, think tanks, research groups, businesses, civil society, media, and regional and international organizations, in addition to governments. Respondents could complete the survey in one in all six language options: English, Indonesian, Burmese, Khmer, Thai, and Vietnamese. In the 2024 survey, China continues to be seen as probably the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia, followed by Southeast Asian countries and the United States. China was seen as probably the most influential political and strategic power within the region, behind the United States. The study shows that ASEAN countries’ perception of the bloc’s political and strategic influence can also be increasing.
Despite positive perceptions of China, concerns remain about its growing regional political and strategic influence, with 73.5% of respondents expressing concern, down from 68.5% in 2023. Confidence within the United States has also declined, with almost 60% of respondents concerned about its growing strategic influence and political within the region, in comparison with over 40 percent. in 2023. The decline in trust within the USA might be partly related to the escalation of rivalry between China and the USA.
Although more respondents indicated trust within the United States than distrust, the findings indicate a major decline in trust for greater than half of respondents in 2023. This could mean that Southeast Asia could also be cautious about approaching the US presidential elections in November. Eligibility criteria for the 2024 study have been tightened in comparison with previous years. Respondents were screened on various criteria reminiscent of nationality, age, affiliation, education, general knowledge of Asian countries and level of interest in current affairs. This could have influenced the change in sentiment observed within the survey results.
The annual survey, first conducted in 2019, goals to offer an image of prevailing attitudes amongst those that can inform or influence policy on regional issues. Southeast Asia’s shifting preferences toward China have the potential to affect future policies and relations within the region. There were exceptions to the final trend of declining trust within the US. Respondents from the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam were more positive concerning the United States’ influence. This suggests that sentiment towards major powers may vary significantly across Southeast Asian countries.
