This ambivalence even amongst his admirers suggests that Thaksin’s political influence in military-ruled Thailand could also be waning despite a brand new publicity stunt for the billionaire, who resides in self-imposed exile to avoid prison for corruption.
READ MORE: Thai amnesty bill sparks street protests
From his base in Dubai, Thaksin donated money and influence to street protests and election campaigns, helping his sister Yingluck develop into prime minister in 2011.
But the military overthrew her three years later – she is now on trial for corruption – and purged the bureaucracy of Shinawatra supporters. She also monitored and briefly detained politicians loyal to the family.
Analysts and allies say Thaksin cannot take his former base of support as a right and will begin to fight for his relevance in a rustic that has undergone a profound political awakening up to now decade.
Even the red shirts, a grassroots political movement long considered loyal to Thaksin, are showing signs of outgrowing him.
In a Feb. 23 interview in Singapore, Thaksin insisted Thailand had “regressed” under the junta, which has caused economic hardship and deepened political divisions.
He added that Thais wouldn’t tolerate the junta for long, even though it was unclear whether he would have the ability to capitalize on this discontent.
“The symbolic power that Thaksin and his sister wield is still something that the military is very concerned about,” said Ambika Ahuja, a Southeast Asia specialist at Eurasia Group, a New York-based political risk consultancy.
“(But) his network of regional politicians, local government officials and entrepreneurs has been weakened and disrupted over the years,” she said.
“IT’S OVER”
Thaksin stays popular, especially within the north and northeast of Thailand. However, he admitted that this now not translates into direct political power.
“No one from the Shinawatra family will be prime minister anymore. It’s over,” he said.
He remains wealthy even though $1.4 billion in assets have been frozen since the 2006 coup. According to Forbes, he is the 10th richest man in Thailand, with a net worth of $1.6 billion, although Thaksin has stated that he “doesn’t even rank in the top 20.”
Returning home was Thaksin’s “top priority,” said Chaturon Chaisaeng, the minister of both Shinwatras who was ousted with them in coups in 2006 and 2014.
However, Thaksin’s return home would seem unlikely as long as Thailand’s military-backed royalist elite remained staunchly opposed.
Chaturon said Thaksin was also busy helping his sister.
Last year, a junta-appointed assembly impeached Yingluck and banned her from politics for five years. She is currently under criminal investigation for corruption in the multi-billion dollar rice subsidy program.
“He persuaded his sister to enter politics and become prime minister without much preparation,” Chaturon said. “And now he faces a very serious situation.”
Thaksin said he was fearful about Yingluck. He is confident in his legacy, which incorporates populist policies comparable to low-cost loans and nearly free health care.
“People never forget me,” he said in an interview.
However, in recent months, he and Yingluck have made frequent media appearances and handed out 1000’s of free books and calendars.
The goal was “to remind people of their achievements,” said Phumtham Wechayachai, secretary general of the Shinawatra-backed Puea Thai party.
Some analysts say the campaign was deliberately planned to embarrass the junta because it grapples with mounting difficulties, including in reviving Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which has struggled for the reason that coup.
Underscoring the military government’s allergy to Thaksin, authorities in northeastern Thailand banned the calendars.
“I don’t know why they made such a big deal out of it,” Thaksin said.
Even within the country’s northeast, Shinawatra’s traditional vote bank, it is not hard to search out ambivalence toward Thaksin.
“Thaksin thinks he knows the red shirts better than their leaders. This is not true,” said Thida Thavornseth, former president of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, as the movement is formally called.
Many red shirts disagreed that Thaksin pressured Yingluck, then prime minister, to pass an amnesty law in 2013, Thida said.
READ MORE: Former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck to face Supreme Court over troubled rice subsidy scheme
The bill, which would have freed Thaksin from his conviction, sparked huge street protests and prompted the military to retake power.
“There are people who love Thaksin very much,” Thida said. “But there are also those in his camp who hate and fear him.”
Thaksin denied this. “The red shirts love me and I love them,” he said.
