New data from the Japan Center for Economic Research shows that American cities have a powerful position within the rating of the most important urban economies on either side of the Pacific, but in Asia they face a change of power.
Singapore was Asia’s largest city by nominal gross regional product per capita in 2015 and can maintain this position in 2030, in accordance with the JCER Medium-Term Asian Economic Forecast 2018-2030 released on Wednesday.
Among 77 major American and Asian cities in 2015, the city-state ranked 14th, with all 13 top spots going to the United States, led by San Francisco. By 2030, Singapore will drop only one place, while Hong Kong – Asia’s second entry on the list – will remain in seventeenth place.
But then the outlook for Asia changes in a JCER report titled “Rising Cities, Sinking Cities in Asia.”
Shenzhen shows how catching the wave of the digital economy can speed up a city’s development. The hotbed of smartphone industries will soon close in Tokyo and Seoul.
More broadly, Jakarta and other Southeast Asian capitals are poised for noticeable increases in GRP per capita, while South Korea’s Busan and Taiwan’s capital Taipei appear destined to say no.
Jakarta is predicted to leap to twenty eighth place out of 77 cities in 2030 from forty first in 2015. This will make the Indonesian capital the thirteenth largest urban economy in Asia and the most important in Southeast Asia, ahead of Bangkok.
In total, the forecasts cover major cities in 13 key markets: US; Japan; China; India; the newly industrialized economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore; and ASEAN5, which incorporates Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The data provides insight not only into per capita GRP, but additionally into overall nominal GRP and future populations.
In terms of economic scale, measured by nominal GRP, China’s large cities will rise and Japan’s will fall.
In the center and lower tier, where many Indian and Southeast Asian cities fall, Delhi and Manila can grow rapidly as infrastructure development continues.
JCER Research Projects By 2030, there will probably be 32 “megacities” in Asia and the US with a population of at the least 10 million. Only two of them will probably be within the US
