The Move Forward party, the surprise winner of Thailand’s May election, is facing a dilemma over whether to support or oppose its former ally’s candidate for prime minister after its own leader’s bid was rejected.
The recent coalition, which is being formed by the Pheu Thai Party, plans to nominate real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister. A vote against Srettha risks pushing Pheu Thai towards conservative opponents and pro-royalist senators who’ve thwarted Move Forward’s efforts to form a government led by Pit Limjaroenrat.
Move Forward lawmakers are gauging the mood among the many initiative’s supporters – mostly urban and young voters – to determine on strategy. While Pita said the party was in no rush to make a call, Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, co-founder of its disbanded predecessor Future Forward Party, said Move Forward should clarify its decision to take a seat within the opposition and rule out support for the Pheu Thai coalition.
“Move Forward is likely to anger many of its supporters if they vote for prime ministerial candidate Pheu Thai to spearhead a reconciliation pact with the Conservatives,” said Peter Mumford, head of Southeast Asia at consultancy Eurasia Group.
Political paralysis has undermined investor confidence in Thailand, which has been under an interim government with none major powers since March. Political parties at the moment are under pressure to finish the post-election stalemate and address economic issues similar to the delicate economic recovery, high household debt and falling disposable incomes.
Move Forward was the leading candidate to guide the federal government within the weeks after the May 14 election and is now liable to being demoted to opposition, largely on account of the organisation’s reluctance to back down from its promise to vary royal insult laws and other platforms that would damage the professional-military business elite.
Pheu Thai has asked for support and is asking for reconciliation between political parties, citing one of the best interests of the nation. The Move Forward decision may potentially determine the form of the Pheu Thai coalition, as pro-military parties and senators haven’t yet supported the alliance.
The recent Pheu Thai alliance is well below a majority within the two houses of parliament that together have 750 members and can determine who can be prime minister. The coalition had the support of 238 lawmakers on Thursday, 13 fewer than a majority within the elected House of Representatives. Move Forward’s 151 legislators could effectively seal Srettha’s victory even without the support of senators or military-linked groups.
Pheu Thai, backed by the family of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is pushing for what it calls a reconciliation government, with support from parties across the ideological divide. The party has said it’s time to put aside many years of colour-coded politics – red for Shinawatra supporters and yellow for his or her royalist opponents – and give attention to measures to revive the economy.
Thaksin’s plan to return to Thailand after 15 years of self-imposed exile also weighs on the formation of the Pheu Thai government. It potentially raises the necessity to strike deals with military-backed parties that represent the establishment to make sure his secure return home and the likelihood of receiving a royal pardon, said Napon Jatusripitak, a research fellow on the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
This also puts Pheu Thai in a dilemma because it must determine whether it should ally with military-linked parties though it has other options, Napon said.
“Pheu Thai is not counting on Move Forward’s support and seems to have already ventured quite far into the ‘dark side,’” Napon said. “The real challenge for Pheu Thai lies in the fact that some options could significantly damage its reputation as a pro-democracy party, even if they bring it to power or provide Thaksin with safe passage home.”
Although Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy is about to grow greater than 3% this yr on a rebound in tourism and personal consumption, it’s scuffling with weak global demand for its goods and rising borrowing costs. Investors also worry that a delay in forming a government could keep off budget approval and public spending.
Srettha sees the formation of a government because the earliest solution to Thailand’s urgent economic problems and doesn’t rule out an alliance with military-backed parties.
“We have to be realistic,” he told reporters late Friday. “We need a new government. To solve Thailand’s problems, it is necessary for Pheu Thai to lead the government.”
