The Philippines has recorded a disturbing recent milestone. The country’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.7 in 2025, the bottom level on record because the first national survey was conducted in 1968.
This number is well below the commonly accepted substitute level of two.1, the minimum threshold required for a population to sustain itself without having to depend on migration.
The data comes from the 2025 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Monday, March 30, 2026. It was the thirteenth survey in a national series dating back to 1968 and surveyed nearly 30,000 women aged 15 to 49 from across the Philippines.
The decline was dramatic. In 1993, the common Filipina gave birth to 4.1 children in her lifetime. That number has now fallen to only 1.7, a decline of greater than half in three a long time. Compared to the 2022 study, which showed a TFR of 1.9, the most recent decline further reinforces a gradual downward trend with no clear signs of reversal.
Persistent regional and economic differences
While the decline in birth rates has occurred across all regions, income groups and education levels, the disparities remain striking. According to the Philippine News Agency, Calabarzon saw the steepest decline, dropping from 1.8 to 1.3, making it the region with the bottom TFR within the country.
The National Capital Region and the Negros Island Region finished with a rating of 1.4. Meanwhile, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) continues to record the very best TFR at 2.4, although this can be a significant decline from 3.1 in 2022.
The Zamboanga Peninsula ranked at 2.3 and Caraga at 2.2. In urban areas, the TFR has dropped to only 1.5, while in rural areas it stays at a better level of two.0.
Economic aspects also reveal a stark contrast. Women from the richest households still have a mean of just 1.1 children, down from 1.4 in 2022. Meanwhile, women from the poorest households still have a mean of two.8 children, greater than twice as many.
Education levels are similar. According to Philstar, women with only primary education have the very best fertility rate amongst educated groups, at 3.1.
Women select smaller families
The decline within the birth rate is essentially as a result of women’s own decisions. According to the study, 57.3 percent married women said they now not desired to have additional children.
The use of recent contraceptives amongst married women also increased, reaching 44.5%. in comparison with 41.8 percent in 2022, with probably the most commonly used method being contraceptive pills.
However, access to family planning services stays unequal. According to Philstar, about 12.5 percent of married women reported unmet needs for family planning, and 48 percent of sexually lively single women said they needed contraception but didn’t have access to it.
On a more positive note, the teenager pregnancy rate has fallen to a record low of 4.8%, down from a peak of 10.1% in 2013. Maternal and child health indicators have also improved, with births in health facilities rising to 93.7% and the under-five mortality rate falling to 22 per 1,000 live births.
The Philippines just isn’t alone, the birth rate within the region continues to say no
The declining birth rate just isn’t unique to the Philippines. Thailand and Singapore face much more serious demographic pressures.
Last 12 months, just 416,514 people were born in Thailand, the bottom in almost 75 years, and the variety of deaths was 559,684. According to the Bangkok Post, Thailand’s TFR is currently around 1.0-1.2, making it the one country in Southeast Asia with a steadily falling birth rate.
Without significant policy intervention, Thailand’s population is projected to say no from around 67 million today to only 30 million over the following five to 6 a long time.
Singapore’s situation is much more worrying. In 2025, the TFR dropped to 0.87, the bottom level on record – with only about 27,500 citizen births recorded, which can be the bottom level on record.
Vice Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong described the situation as an “existential challenge.” “We cannot give up,” he said, in line with CNA. Based on a TFR of 0.87, every 100 people today would mean only 44 children and 19 grandchildren in the longer term.
