February 28, 2026 marked a dramatic turning point in Iran’s bilateral relations with the United States. On that day, the joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran officially began, initiating an open conflict that lasted over two months.
This event not only fundamentally modified the safety landscape within the Middle East, but additionally initiated a worldwide political shift whose effects are still felt today.
The road to war and ceasefire
In a military operation launched on February 28, 2026, Iran’s then supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike. The lack of the leader who had been in power for several a long time caused political turmoil in Tehran and a devastating wave of retaliation.
Iran responded with a large missile and drone attack on US bases throughout the region. It revealed that Iran and its proxies successfully attacked not less than 16 US military facilities in eight countries, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Oman.
The extent of the damage was reported to be extensive, with some facilities completely destroyed, a scale of destruction that U.S. officials called unprecedented.
The conflict lasted until April 7, 2026, when President Donald Trump ordered a two-week ceasefire, which was later prolonged. On May 1, 2026, Trump officially declared an end to hostilities to Congress, noting that there had been no military contact between U.S. and Iranian forces since April 7.
He stressed, nevertheless, that the U.S. military continues to regulate its forces within the Middle East in anticipation of potential threats from Iran and its proxies.
Iran’s latest leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei
The power vacuum following Ali Khamenei’s death was immediately filled by his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who was elected supreme leader on March 9, 2026. Since taking office, Mojtaba has communicated only through written statements and has made no public appearances, resulting in speculation about his health and the interior dynamics of the regime.
In his first statement on the occasion of National Gulf Day on April 30, 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei firmly stated that the longer term of the Persian Gulf region might be freed from US presence. He emphasized that the presence of foreign powers, especially the United States, is a source of instability within the region.
He then announced a brand new management plan for the Strait of Hormuz, which incorporates a reformed legal framework that he believes will bring stability, progress and economic advantages to all countries within the region.
Mojtaba also vowed to proceed to guard Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities despite U.S. efforts to contain them through military and diplomatic pressure. In a speech broadcast on Iranian state television, Mojtaba said that the United States’ only place within the Persian Gulf was at the underside of its waters and that a brand new chapter was being written within the region’s history.
Impact on global politics and power polarization
The February 2026 conflict caused serious global polarization. This may be understood because the creation of a brand new axis of power often called CRINK, a strategic alliance of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
If these 4 powers move in a coordinated manner against the Western bloc, the world risks entering a phase of world confrontation paying homage to the Cold War, but with much greater economic complexity.
The situation is made worse by Iran’s threat to completely close the Strait of Hormuz. This sea route, which carries about 20 percent of the world’s crude oil supplies and almost a 3rd of liquefied natural gas trade, is a worldwide energy artery.
Disruption of this pathway could send oil prices skyrocketing to the intense range of $150-200 per barrel, which might have a knock-on effect on transportation costs, the manufacturing industry and even the worldwide food sector.
Brent crude oil prices reportedly reached $126 per barrel on April 30, 2026. The Trump administration is considering various diplomatic and political options to encourage Iran to finish its blockade of this energy trade route.
US military response: emergency arms sales
As a part of a fast response to the dynamics of the conflict, the Trump administration took the controversial step of accelerating the sale of weapons price over $8.6 billion to Middle Eastern allies.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio authorized these transfers using emergency powers that allow sales without standard congressional oversight, marking the third time the administration has used such powers throughout the conflict with Iran.
The sales include Patriot missile systems price greater than $4 billion to Qatar, advanced air defense systems price about $2.5 billion to Kuwait and precision weapons systems price nearly $1 billion to Israel. The decision drew criticism from Democratic members of Congress, who accused the Trump administration of bypassing checks and balances.
The changing dynamics of regional security
One of a very powerful post-conflict developments was the emergence of discourse on the creation of a joint defense pact by 4 Muslim countries: Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This pact, just like NATO’s version for Muslim-majority countries, goals to create a regional security system independent of Israeli threats.
This discourse intensified after Israel’s attack on Doha, Qatar in September 2025, which showed that no Middle Eastern country is immune from attack. Arab countries now realize that they’ll never be proof against Israeli attacks and are starting to query the effectiveness of the external security umbrella they’ve relied on, especially from Washington.
Resistance from traditional U.S. allies
In the aftermath of the conflict, the United States encountered resistance from key European allies. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni refused to support US military operations against Iran, denying access to the Sigonella air base and Italian airspace.
At the identical time, Pope Leo repeatedly called for peace within the Middle East and criticized Trump’s war policy towards Iran, which was met with sharp opposition from the US president.
Amid rising tensions, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Rome and the Vatican from May 6-8, 2026, to debate the crisis within the Middle East and repair strained diplomatic relations.
By May 2026, the Middle East was in a fragile stalemate. Despite the ceasefire, negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and the safety of the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled.
Both sides maintained strong red lines: The United States threatened further military motion if Iran rejected its demands, while Iran insisted on retaining its nuclear and missile capabilities. Trump also warned of possible attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, including power plants, raising legal and humanitarian concerns.
After February 28, 2026, the region entered a more uncertain era. Although the open conflict had subsided, underlying tensions remained within the face of more assertive leadership in Tehran, deepening global polarization, and growing skepticism amongst traditional U.S. allies about Washington’s Middle East strategy.
