For a protracted time, the United States was seen because the principal partner of many Southeast Asian countries. However, the most recent data shows that an enormous change is now going down.
According to TState of Southeast Asia: Survey Report 2026 by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, the region has reached a turning point. The survey included 2,800 respondents from across the region (including East Timor), including policy experts, academics, business leaders and journalists.
For the primary time for the reason that annual survey began, a majority of respondents within the region selected China over the United States if forced to decide on.
About 52.0% of respondents selected China, while the United States dropped to 48.0%. This is an entire turnaround from last yr, when the United States still held a slim lead of 52.3%. It shows that individuals across the region are seriously considering who their most vital ally really is.
“Pro-China” trend.
The most striking a part of this transformation comes from Indonesia. The report found that 80.1% of Indonesian respondents would select China over the United States if forced to ally with one superpower.
Surprisingly, that is the best percentage in all of ASEAN. A yr ago this percentage was already high and amounted to 72.2%, but now it has increased much more.
Why is that this happening?
The answer comes right down to economic impact. China is currently seen as probably the most influential economic power within the region by 55.9% of respondents.
In Indonesia, 59.7% of respondents agree with this view. China is seen by many as a partner with enormous economic resources and the political will crucial to offer global leadership.
“Concern” towards the US
While China’s influence is growing, the United States is losing ground, largely as a result of its domestic policies. The survey shows that 51.9% of individuals within the region consider US leadership under President Donald Trump to be their principal geopolitical concern. There are many concerns about inconsistent policies and whether the US will honor its long-term commitments within the region.
In Singapore, this concern is even higher at 76.8%, because the country could be very sensitive to global trade risks. Many respondents fear that a “Trump 2.0” administration could use tariffs and sanctions to punish other countries, which could hurt export-strapped Southeast Asian economies. This fear has led many to hunt more stable relationships elsewhere.
However, there may be a very important catch to those findings. Being influential doesn’t necessarily mean you may trust him. Although China has overtaken the United States in popularity, Japan stays probably the most trusted power within the region.
About 65.6% of respondents trust Japan to do the suitable thing for the worldwide community, compared with 44.0% within the US and 39.8% in China. People see Japan as a reliable partner that follows the principles.
Moreover, most Southeast Asians don’t actually need to decide on a side. The report highlighted that 55.2% of respondents imagine that ASEAN should give attention to its own “resilience and unity” to avoid being caught in the course of superpower competition.
