Among the various political dramas currently unfolding within the wake of Thailand’s May general elections is the continuing disintegration of the Democratic Party (DP), the country’s oldest.
Completely overshadowed by the progressive Forward Movement Party and the populist Pheu Thai, the Democrats won just 25 seats within the 500-seat House of Representatives, their worst electoral result because the party’s founding in 1946.
The party is currently in chaos. Former party leader Jurin Laksanawisit resigned after the election and now, three months later, the party has repeatedly failed to seek out a brand new leader amid a fierce internal power struggle.
The decline of Democrats has been an extended time coming. There are many reasons for this – the abandonment of the party’s namesake principles, an unresolved identity crisis woven from inconsistent policy positions, and the emergence of more radical conservative parties corresponding to Palang Pracharath and Ruam Thai Sang Chart (UTNP). fatal fall.
This decline into irrelevance could function a doomsday reminder for his former rival Pheu Thai. May’s elections were also the primary time in 20 years that Pheu Thai and former officials linked to ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra didn’t emerge from the polls because the ruling party.
The long-time electoral champion won 141 seats, being runner-up to the younger Move Forward party. Despite winning 151 seats, the reformist party appears prone to be forced out of the ruling coalition by the military-backed conservative establishment.
Like the Democrats, Pheu Thai is a remnant of an old-fashioned political era. Thaksin and his family – most recently his daughter Paetongtarn – remain at the middle of the party’s political maneuvering and decision-making. In recent years, Pheu Thai has shown little effort to construct and renew its political brand beyond the Shinawatra clan to adapt to the brand new demographics of the Thai electorate.
Despite countless cycles of political persecution, bloody repression of protesting supporters and two military coups that overthrew her elected government within the last 20 years, Pheu Thai appears to be repeating her own mistakes and, worse still, following the Democrats to defeat .
Given the conservative camp’s continued efforts to forestall Move Forward and its charismatic leader Pita Limjaroenrat from forming a government, Pheu Thai recently walked away from the Progressive-led coalition pact and optimistically formed a brand new coalition with the would-be queen Bhumjaithai Party.
They will start with combos 238 places in lower house with the Chart Thai Pattana Party, one other junior partner. However, they’re still wanting the 376 seats required to achieve the easy majority threshold in a joint session of the House of Representatives with the unelected 250-seat Senate.
This number won’t ever be achieved unless other conservative and military-linked parties, including Democrats, UTN and Palang Pracharath, join the Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai coalition.
The patriarchs of the latter two are former junta leaders Prayut Chan-ocha and Prawit Wongsuwon, respectively. What is especially noteworthy is that Prayut and Prawit proceed to wield political influence over the senators they elected after they headed the junta’s now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order.
Let alone coming to terms with ultra-conservative and military-linked parties, even Pheu Thai’s infamous “mint-chocolate” partnership with Bhumjaithai seems problematic. The party was created in late 2008 by founder Newin Chidchobas following the sudden departure of his predecessor Pheu Thai, a supporter of the People’s Power Party of Thaksin.
Newin, a former minister in Thaksin’s government, told a senior populist politician: “It’s over, boss!” before resulting in a bunch of like-minded MPs leaving the party, forming Bhumjaithai, and joining former Democrat Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to form an unpopular government in 2009. In the eyes of Pheu Thai and Redshirt supporters, even until the last election, Bhumjaithai had all the time been untrustworthy and an emblem betrayal.
During the road protest in May 2010, it was Abhisit he ordered a bloody motion at the least concerning the killing of protesters 90 people and hurting greater than 2000. Though Thai court has already dismissed all charges against Abhisit, the “Red Shirts” proceed to demand accountability from the Democrats.
Equally essential, after the 2014 military coup that overthrew Yingluck Shinawatra’s government, the resulting junta was established arrested and detained several Pheu Thai supporters for protesting against the takeover of power. Some activists, including scientists, reporters and commentators, fled the country for fear of arrest and imprisonment. Several years later, justice remains to be a great distance away for them.
Hanging over Pheu Thai’s unpopular security position is Thaksin’s planned return to Thailand after 15 years in exile. With his daughter Paetongtarn prone to be one among Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates, the 74-year-old continues to play a vital role within the party. Rumors have it that he made an agreement with the pro-establishment camp to form a government without Move Forward and abandon its programs – corresponding to reforming the lèse-majesté law, which prohibits speech deemed critical of the monarchy – in exchange for leniency on his eventual return home .
If the rumor is true, and if Pheu Thai managed to form a government without Move Forward, contemporary Thai politics has almost come full circle.
From the mid-2000s until 2014, conservative camps used every means at their disposal, including two military coups, to root out Thaksin, his proxy parties and allies from the middle of power. After almost a decade of junta rule and elected but military-friendly governments, a far-left camp emerged at the tip of the late Future Forward party and the present Move Forward party to turn out to be the brand new opponent of the pro-system camp.
To prevent this rising rival from taking office, Thaksin is transformed overnight into a reasonably good guy. His former enemies and rivals even spoke highly of him, or at the least described him because the lesser evil.
But if that happens, Pheu Thai might even see the Democrats’ demise as a crystal ball showing her the longer term that’s yet to come back.
The Democrats’ miscalculated lack of respect for the electorate in the primary decade of the twenty first century, combined with cooperation with the military to destroy the so-called Thaksin regime and later joining the military-friendly coalition in 2019, played a big role within the Democrats’ self-defense. destruction.
It could also be too early to evaluate whether Pheu Thai leaving the unique eight-party coalition and joining hands with conservative parties is rational and well-considered. However, the party must proceed to elucidate its arguments very rigorously to its supporters.
In the event of a government that excludes Move Forward, Pheu Thai still has a likelihood – perhaps a diminishing one – of introducing popular policies from a less controversial, progressive agenda.
Otherwise, the Democrats’ past could also be Pheu Thai’s future. Thai society, which voted for Move Forward and Pheu Thai and against the country’s conservative type of government, is becoming less patient and tolerant of broken campaign guarantees or political missteps.
Perhaps the final word query is how a Pheu Thai-led government would reply to possible mass street protests by Move Forward supporters. Would this end in military reprisals, because the Democrat-led government did against Pheu Thai supporters in 2010? Only time will tell.
Sek Sophal holds a Master’s degree in Asia-Pacific Studies from Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University in Japan. He is a research associate on the Center for the Promotion of Democracy, the Ritsumeikan Center for Asia-Pacific Studies, and a co-author of the journal Globe of Southeast Asia.
Chhengpor Aun is a visiting fellow on the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He can also be a graduate of the Master of International Affairs Program on the Hertie School in Berlin.
