Over the past five years, Beijing has taken a more assertive approach in Southeast Asia, each militarily and diplomatically. This includes increased militarization of the South China Sea through using fishing vessels and soldiers to limit the activities of Southeast Asian fishing boats. China also poses a growing threat to Taiwan and is pursuing an aggressive “wolf warrior” form of diplomacy world wide.
Surprisingly, despite these actions, China’s influence in Southeast Asia has actually increased, while the United States has seen its decline, in accordance with a comprehensive study by the Lowy Institute. The study examined indicators comparable to economic relations, defense networks, diplomatic influence and cultural influence, and located that in Southeast Asia, China has overtaken the United States in all 4 categories over the past five years. Another survey conducted by the ISEAS Yusof-Ishak Institute in Singapore found that the majority respondents consider China to be the dominant economic and political-strategic power within the region.
Analyzing the influence of each countries among the many countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the United States emerged as probably the most influential power in just two: the Philippines and Singapore. Even in these states, nonetheless, the United States has a slim lead. China’s influence has even surpassed that of the United States in Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally. The ISEAS survey found that respondents from all ASEAN countries ranked China as probably the most influential economic power within the region, and a majority also believed that China had the best political and strategic influence.
Interestingly, the United States continues to lose influence in Southeast Asia despite concerns from countries comparable to Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia about China’s assertive military actions. Lowy’s study shows that for a lot of Southeast Asian countries, the United States stays the dominant military power, although its influence on this area can also be declining. Countries comparable to Indonesia and Vietnam are strengthening military cooperation with the US, but are cautious not to impress Beijing. The Philippines, as a U.S. treaty ally, openly allied with Washington and allowed the Pentagon access to strategic bases within the event of a conflict over Taiwan. However, except for the Philippines, other regional states have increasingly accepted Chinese domination.
One significant reason for this trend is China’s significant economic dominance within the region, which makes Southeast Asian countries feel compelled to ally with Beijing. Lowy’s research shows that in 2022, China had stronger economic relations than the US in every country in Southeast Asia. China has also emerged as a lender of last resort during economic crises, providing aid and investment. This has prompted countries comparable to Malaysia, even those with historically close relations with the US, to show towards China. Additionally, Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, are increasingly purchasing Chinese weapons, which indicates the convergence of China’s military and economic influence. On the opposite hand, the United States withdrew from regional trade agreements and economic integration efforts, further weakening its economic influence.
The Biden administration’s give attention to rights and democracy has had little impact in a region where most countries have autocratic or semi-autocratic systems. This emphasis could have contributed to China’s growing cultural influence, aided by extensive investment in soft and sharp power initiatives.
The United States faces a alternative: either proceed with its current approach and further lose influence, or reassess its commitment to the region. Southeast Asia is crucial to U.S. efforts to discourage Chinese aggression against Taiwan and impose economic costs on Beijing if deterrence fails. Maintaining the establishment is an unattractive option, nonetheless, because the Lowy and ISEAS reports indicate that the United States is increasingly drifting away from its close allies in Southeast Asia, which could prove costly and potentially dangerous in the longer term.
Source:
Kurlantzick, Joshua. “The United States is Losing Ground to China in Southeast Asia.” Council on Foreign RelationsJune 8, 2023, www.cfr.org/article/us-losing-ground-china-sutheast-asia.
“Asia Energy Snapshot: China and the United States in Southeast Asia.” Lowy Institutewww.lowyinstitute.org/publications/asia-power-snapshot-china-united-states-sutheast-asia.
Lenga, Teo Hwee. “The State of Southeast Asia: Survey Report 2023 – ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.” ISEAS-Yusof Ishak InstituteFebruary 9, 2023, www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/state-of-sutheast-asia-survey/the-state-of-sutheast-asia-2023-survey-report-2.
—. “The State of Southeast Asia: Survey Report 2023 – ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.” ISEAS-Yusof Ishak InstituteFebruary 9, 2023, www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/state-of-sutheast-asia-survey/the-state-of-sutheast-asia-2023-survey-report-2.
Heydarian, Richard Javad. “Marcos Brings the Philippines Back to the United States.” World Politics ReviewFebruary 17, 2023, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-philippines-relations-marcos-military-politics-china.
