The junta and the resistance have limited ability to make gains or maintain ground as monsoon rain clouds begin to roll in over Myanmar in early June. Analysts say such weather makes it especially difficult for a military deployed on multiple front lines, weakening its air power advantage.
Important trade and military outposts lie within the balance, including Myawaddy within the southeast, within the western Rakhine region, where the powerful Arakan Army has crushed the junta and swathes of other provinces along the border with China and Thailand.
Some of those areas the junta will attempt to retake or hold before the rains arrive, whilst rebels try to keep up momentum, said Zachary Abuza, a professor on the US National War College and a Southeast Asia specialist.
“The military has some really important strategic objectives in the coming weeks,” he said, referring to key ongoing battles including those for Myawaddy and a town in Rakhine state.
A junta spokesman didn’t reply to Reuters’ calls.
The junta has faced a series of battlefield defeats since October and faces its biggest challenge since taking power amid a bleeding economy.
According to estimates by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), it has lost control of about half of its 5,280 military positions, including outposts, bases and headquarters, and 60 percent of the territory it previously controlled in ethnic minority areas.
The military could lose control of all major borderlands with Bangladesh, China, India and Thailand in the following six months, areas where it’s currently fighting various rebel groups, a Thai official and diplomatic source told Reuters based on their assessment of the situation. ongoing battles.
Stretched across border territories which might be slipping from its grasp, the junta will want to consolidate resources and prioritize key areas, they are saying.
Both asked to stay anonymous because they aren’t authorized to seek advice from the media.
“The Writing is on the Wall”
But they added that although the junta was weakened and bleeding soldiers, it retained the firepower to inflict significant damage on resistance groups and hold the central lowland region, home to most of Myanmar’s population.
Even surrounded by government forces, they may provide a solid defense and lengthen the conflict, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a regional political analyst in Bangkok.
“I think this may drag on,” he said, referring to the unrest within the country. But he added that the junta’s control was “unsustainable” in the long term.
“The writing is on the wall,” Thitinan said, pointing to battlefield losses, emboldened resistance and an absence of public support.
After losing control of Myawaddy, the military mounted a counteroffensive to retake the town, which is a border trade route value greater than $1 billion a yr.
The Karen National Union (KNU), one among Myanmar’s oldest ethnic armies that originally drove the military out of Myawaddy, is now fighting to contain the junta’s onslaught.
“More than 1,000 troops are approaching and advancing towards Myawaddy, but combined KNLA forces proceed to strive hard to intercept, block and attack them,” KNU spokesman Saw Taw Nee told Reuters, referring to fighting between junta troops and the group’s armed wing. Karen National Liberation Army.
“There are fierce battles every day.”
It can be tougher and dangerous to operate helicopters through the monsoon – to move troops, supply bases cut off by anti-regime forces and supply fire support
About 900 km (600 miles) west of Myawaddy, the junta is fighting the Arakan Army, which is searching for to take control of Ann, a key regional military command.
The 793-kilometer (491-mile) Myanmar-China gas pipeline also runs through Ann, and there may be a foremost pumping station near the town that analysts say the military will do anything to keep up.
Monsoon rains will complicate the deployment of the military’s air force – a key advantage for the junta – due to low cloud cover that can impact using unguided munitions, that are typically utilized by the military’s air force, said Richard Horsey, senior adviser to the Crisis Group on Myanmar .
“Operating helicopters through the monsoon can be tougher and dangerous – to move troops, resupply bases cut off by anti-regime forces and supply fire support,” Horsey said.
Military desertions across the country in recent months have shown that the junta’s failure to provide troops with food, water, ammunition and medical supplies has led to a collapse in morale, in line with Abuza of the National War College.
Analysts say the rains will give a bonus to resistance forces which have the momentum of multiple victories, but remain a various set of ethnic armies and grassroots resistance groups that lack critical coordination.
“Facilitating strategic coordination among the multitude of groups will take time, but it will be a decisive factor in determining the outcome of the conflict in Myanmar,” Ye Myo Hein of USIP said in a recent report.
Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for Myanmar’s shadow government of national unity, said the junta currently retained control only of huge cities in Myanmar’s heartland.
“Even there they feel threatened.”
