Amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, one country has quietly strengthened its position as probably the most trusted power in Southeast Asia: Japan.
The annual survey conducted by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, published on April 7, 2025, and based on responses from 2,008 participants from all ASEAN member states, showed that Japan achieved a trust index of 65.6%.
This number significantly exceeds the European Union – 55.9 percent, the United States – 44 percent, China – 39.8 percent. and India – 38.5 percent
Who trusts Japan probably the most and why
Trust in Japan is uneven across Southeast Asia, with the best level within the Philippines (77.3%), followed by Brunei (72.9%), Cambodia (72.0%) and Vietnam (67.9%). This pattern reflects geopolitical realities, not coincidence.
The Philippines and Vietnam are under direct pressure from China within the South China Sea, from naval clashes within the case of Manila to resource blockades within the case of Hanoi. In response, Japan positioned itself as a reliable security partner, offering tangible support without demanding explicit returns.
From 2023, the official security assistance program expanded to countries reminiscent of the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, strengthening defense capabilities amongst “like-minded” developing countries.
Cambodia presents a very interesting case. Despite Phnom Penh’s deepening relationship with Beijing, trust in Japan stays high, fueled by long-term investments. By 2022, Japan has committed greater than 622 billion yen (about $3.9 billion) to post-conflict reconstruction, infrastructure and economic development.
Indonesia is a notable exception. Confidence in Japan has plummeted from 61.5% in 2025 to only 47.9% this yr.
Indonesia, nonetheless, is a pointy exception. Confidence dropped from 61.5 percent. in 2025 to 47.9 percent this yr. This reflects Jakarta’s non-aligned stance and growing concern over Japan’s closer security alliance with the United States, raising doubts about Tokyo’s independence.
Economic dynamics amplifies this alteration. China’s growing role in Indonesia’s green energy transition from electric vehicle batteries to renewable energy contrasts with Japan’s more limited presence, adding to the impression of insufficient involvement.
Even amongst skeptics, criticism is less about hostility than about absence: 38.3 percent imagine Japan is just too focused on domestic affairs and Northeast Asia.
Ultimately, Japan stays probably the most trusted partner within the region not because trust is universal, but since it continues to be seen as consistent, reliable and largely non-coercive where it matters most.
A protracted-established regional fund in Japan
The trust Japan enjoys today didn’t occur overnight. It has been built because the Seventies through consistent commitment, especially as each China and the United States are increasingly seen as pursuing their very own strategic interests.
A key turning point was the Fukuda Doctrine announced by Takeo Fukuda in 1977. Japan pledged to act as a peaceful partner of ASEAN and renounced any return to militarism.
This commitment has been reinforced by a long time of development assistance totaling roughly $128 billion, focused on infrastructure, post-conflict reconstruction and human development.
Unlike China, often criticized for debt-driven projects, or the United States, often linked to political pressure, Japan’s approach is seen as respecting national sovereignty. This makes it a reliable partner, especially for Southeast Asian countries on the lookout for unconditional support.
Over time, this regular diplomacy helped shift perceptions of the painful legacy of World War II, including the Manila Massacre and the Burma Railway, toward a more pragmatic and forward-looking trust.
But that trust is now being tested. Plans to revise Art. Article 9 of Japan’s structure under Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, together with a rise in defense spending to 2 percent of GDP by 2027 and the deployment of troops near Taiwan, have raised concerns within the region.
Analysts warn that Japan should be transparent about its intentions and make sure that its defense development strengthens stability within the region, fairly than weakening the trust it has built over a long time.
